Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf40…3850 crypto 943 markets active 3d ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate60%593W / 389L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day136.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$54
14 days−$60
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 4% -11.4%
≤30d 982 -5.1% -14.2% 60% 2% -10.1%
≤90d 982 -5.1% -14.2% 60% 2% -10.1%
all 982 -5.1% -14.2% 60% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 2% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses593 / 389
Open positions0
Markets (closed)982 / 943
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day136.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 982 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records