Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdf41…f8fb crypto 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$625 (+1%) realized +$643 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%238W / 2L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$111
14 days+$109
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$591
other 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 77 +1.0% -8.7% 97% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 224 +1.4% -8.3% 99% 0% -9.0%
all 240 +1.5% -8.2% 99% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$664) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$480 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized+$643
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses238 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)240 / 243
History coverage100d
Avg bet$431
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $401 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? No 94¢ 96¢ $101 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $67 $46 −$21 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $422 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $458 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $600 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $123 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $653 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $620 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $284 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $862 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $401 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $127 +$13 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $503 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $401 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $432 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $288 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $402 +$12 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $560 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $664 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $433 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $561 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $501 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $550 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $601 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $450 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $345 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $253 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $353 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $139 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $467 −$125 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $488 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $457 +$17 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $702 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $147 +$11 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,571 −$835 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $534 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $352 +$29 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,002 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $866 +$23 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1,191 +$28 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $462 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $424 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $950 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $503 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $602 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $226 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $452 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $396 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $59 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $44 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $61 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $52 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $52 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $13 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $201 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $123 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $600 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $101 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $201 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $351 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $69 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.92 · official $549.92 (match) · 1001 history records