Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf45…4490 sports 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%33W / 320L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$20
sports 27% −$10
other 27% −$9
crypto 5% −$2
economics 5% −$2
tech 3% −$6
culture 2% −$3
world 2% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.7% -10.2% 19% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 75 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 89 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 353 -0.5% -9.9% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses33 / 320
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)353 / 354
History coverage654d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio Jun 20 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $432 −$4 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $259 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $205 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $149 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $47 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $104 −$3 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $99 −$1 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $58 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $51 $0 -1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $401 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $119 −$2 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 08 $37 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 08 $145 −$2 -2%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $56 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $153 −$1 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $131 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 96¢ $60 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $42 7h
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio SELL No 91¢ $43 8h
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio BUY No 92¢ $0 11h
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio BUY No 92¢ $16 12h
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio BUY No 92¢ $28 12h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $56 12h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $57 16h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 17h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 30h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 37h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 37h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 45h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $58 46h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $12 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $41 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $47 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $50 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $52 3d
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.85 · official $59.88 (match) · 1355 history records