Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf45…ea2c sports 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$967 (-3%) realized −$965 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%120W / 66L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$191
14 days−$1,057
30 days−$1,047
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$2,457
sports 44% +$1,543
world 1% −$109
crypto 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 55% -18.8%
≤30d 101 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 57% -20.9%
≤90d 124 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 59% -13.8%
all 186 +1.8% -7.9% 65% 61% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 61% -12.1%
10% -16.7% 51% -20.5%
15% -24.8% 33% -28.2%
20% -32.2% 26% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$146 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$965
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses120 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions4
Markets (closed)186 / 190
History coverage275d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Under 82¢ 81¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? No 55¢ 55¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $68 +$27 +40%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $54 +$59 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $60 +$71 +119%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $137 −$135 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $90 −$89 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $79 −$78 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $82 −$81 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $90 +$20 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 +$3 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $83 +$66 +79%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 +$102 +206%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$6 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$69 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$45 +140%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $63 +$44 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $71 +$67 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $55 +$13 +23%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 +$7 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $91 +$67 +73%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $108 −$107 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $42 +$56 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $111 +$63 +57%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $67 −$66 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $9 +$3 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $60 +$63 +105%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 11 $60 +$72 +121%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $66 −$65 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $39 −$39 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 09 $13 +$2 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $66 +$62 +93%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $44 −$44 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $44 −$44 -98%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $56 +$62 +109%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $44 −$3 -8%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $12 +$2 +18%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $75 −$69 -92%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $72 +$9 +13%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $55 −$54 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $54 14m
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 20m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $68 23h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $54 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $137 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $90 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $60 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $79 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 55¢ $82 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $23 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $78 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $49 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $38 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $90 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $83 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $43 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $6 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $70 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $17 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $53 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $24 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $35 5d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $63 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $71 5d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $53 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $108 5d
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 81¢ $55 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.80 · official $134.81 (match) · 368 history records