Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf48…6577 weather 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate67%85W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$8
other 7% +$3
world 6% $0
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 126 -32.3% -38.7% 67% 1% -9.9%
all 127 -32.0% -38.5% 67% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 1% -9.9%
10% -44.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -49.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -54.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses85 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 20 Apr 28 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? Apr 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 20? Apr 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 20? Apr 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 19 Apr 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 18? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19? Apr 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 18 Apr 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on April 18? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 19? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 18? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 18? Apr 18 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 17 Apr 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 17? Apr 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 16 Apr 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on April 16? Apr 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 15? Apr 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on Apri Apr 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 16? Apr 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 15? Apr 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 15? Apr 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 15? Apr 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ap Apr 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 47°F or below on April 14? Apr 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on April 14 Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -2%
Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Apr 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Apr 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will "Bandi: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 12? Apr 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 12? Apr 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12? Apr 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 12? Apr 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 12? Apr 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on Apri Apr 13 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on April 13? Apr 13 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $14 59d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 20 BUY No 98¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $13 61d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $12 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 19 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $15 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 19 BUY No 98¢ $15 61d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 309 history records