Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf4b…5e6d weather 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%88W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% $0
other 23% −$1
politics 14% −$15
crypto 11% +$1
economics 5% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% −$10
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.0% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 -0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 153 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 201 -3.2% -12.5% 44% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses88 / 113
Open positions5
Markets (closed)201 / 206
History coverage529d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on June 29 Jun 28 $9 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on June 28? Jun 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 28? Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 Jun 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 Jun 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 28? Jun 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Jun 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the match not air? Jun 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 28? Jun 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on June 27? Jun 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 27? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? Jun 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 Jun 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 25? Jun 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Derek Tran advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Arthur Dixon advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Michael Anderson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will "Maid of Honor - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the wee Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $125M and $140M at Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jot Thiara win the CA-01 Special Election? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 3h
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 4h
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on June 29 SELL No 100¢ $9 6h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $22 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $6 10h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $22 12h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on June 29 BUY No 100¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 SELL No 100¢ $29 15h
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 SELL No 100¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 BUY No 100¢ $29 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 SELL No 100¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $14 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 SELL No 100¢ $14 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 20h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 20h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 BUY No 100¢ $30 23h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $19 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 BUY No 100¢ $19 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.15 · official $64.15 (match) · 475 history records