Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdf4c…f5fb crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$123 (-5%) realized +$78 · open −$201

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day12.1pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$950now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-27.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	40%	40%	-26.3%
≤30d	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	40%	40%	-26.3%
≤90d	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	40%	40%	-26.3%
all	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	40%	40%	-26.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.0%	40%	-26.3%
10%	-33.9%	40%	-33.4%
15%	-40.3%	35%	-39.8%
20%	-46.2%	30%	-45.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late -35% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$38 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.58 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$950

Realized+$78

Unrealized−$201

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage3d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day12.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$952	$949	−$3 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	FURIA	59¢	0¢	$199	$0	−$199 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 21	$100	−$95	-94%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 21	$51	−$48	-95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$157	−$150	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Jun 20	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 20	$22	−$22	-100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$84	−$49	-58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 20	$22	+$19	+90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$98	+$51	+52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$88	+$42	+47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$86	+$19	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Jun 20	$30	+$22	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 19	$22	−$22	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 19	$22	−$22	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 19	$21	−$21	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$53	+$27	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 19	$22	−$12	-54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 19	$22	−$2	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 19	$22	+$24	+109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$69	−$6	-9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$60	+$61	+102%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$501	42m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$500	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	59¢	$209	3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	35¢	$100	5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	42¢	$51	5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	71¢	$157	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$11	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$22	22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$149	22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	60¢	$98	24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	39¢	$32	24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Spirit	100¢	$130	25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Spirit	62¢	$88	26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	41¢	$36	26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	54¢	$53	27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	77¢	$106	27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$86	31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$52	38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$8	39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$22	39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$22	39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$21	47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	SELL Up	16¢	$10	47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$22	47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	SELL Up	40¢	$19	47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$22	47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$22	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$22	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$45	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$22	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $949.65 · official $949.65 (match) · 42 history records