Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DF 0xdf4f…276b other 13 markets active 21h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$267 (+45%) realized +$269 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% $0
crypto 9% +$35
sports 6% +$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+86.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +105.9% +86.3% 50% 50% +61.2%
≤30d 8 +105.9% +86.3% 50% 50% +61.2%
≤90d 8 +105.9% +86.3% 50% 50% +61.2%
all 8 +105.9% +86.3% 50% 50% +61.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +86.3% 50% +61.2%
10% +68.4% 50% +45.8%
15% +52.2% 50% +31.7%
20% +37.2% 50% +18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +106% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$15 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.36 per $1 lost it wins $5.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $27 +$233 +874%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $49 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 37h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.84 · official $247.84 (match) · 19 history records