Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf55…a2a9 other 19 markets active 5d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$70 (-9%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$18
politics 16% +$2
sports 13% −$59
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -39.0%
≤30d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -39.0%
≤90d 19 -22.2% -29.6% 58% 32% -18.5%
all 19 -22.2% -29.6% 58% 32% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 32% -18.5%
10% -36.3% 26% -26.3%
15% -42.5% 21% -33.4%
20% -48.1% 11% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage64d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $19 +$21 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $80 −$79 -99%
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $31 +$20 +64%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $21 +$10 +46%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 30 $83 +$29 +34%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $20 −$14 -68%
Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 29 $49 +$3 +7%
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 29 $25 +$9 +38%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 27 $14 −$13 -95%
Pharos FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 25 $114 +$1 +1%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $4 +$1 +17%
OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 11 $108 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $19 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $39 5d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $80 31d
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 31d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 99¢ $78 31d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 31d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes $2 31d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 33d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 74¢ $30 45d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 46d
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 93¢ $112 49d
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 50d
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 71¢ $66 50d
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 18¢ $6 50d
Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $52 50d
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $34 50d
Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $49 52d
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $25 52d
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 50¢ $20 52d
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 25¢ $14 52d
Pharos FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $3 52d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $21 52d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 54d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 54d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 64d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t SELL Yes 100¢ $5 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records