Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf5b…b9db other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$17
politics 28% −$12
sports 14% −$11
crypto 5% −$2
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 114 -1.6% -11.0% 9% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)114 / 117
History coverage137d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $195 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $237 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $251 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $228 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $290 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $309 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $557 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $257 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $321 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 14 $303 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $266 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $22 19d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $26 20d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $26 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 28d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 30d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 33d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $250 33d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $250 34d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $229 34d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $229 34d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 35d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $204 35d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 36d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 36d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 37d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.10 · official $96.10 (match) · 359 history records