Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdf5c…74ff crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$445 (+18%) realized +$445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$14
other 25% +$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +5.8% -4.3% 69% 69% +2.4%
≤30d 26 +5.8% -4.3% 69% 69% +2.4%
≤90d 26 +5.8% -4.3% 69% 69% +2.4%
all 26 +5.8% -4.3% 69% 69% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 69% +2.4%
10% -13.4% 65% -7.4%
15% -21.8% 54% -16.3%
20% -29.5% 31% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$82 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$74 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $207 +$115 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$73 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$89 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$39 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$63 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$48 +47%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$32 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $322 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $70 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $37 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $150 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $133 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $138 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $135 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $164 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records