Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf5d…b20a other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$86 (-12%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$90
sports 11% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+62.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.1% +0.5% 40% 40% +21.3%
≤30d 8 +80.0% +62.9% 38% 38% -9.8%
≤90d 8 +80.0% +62.9% 38% 38% -9.8%
all 8 +80.0% +62.9% 38% 38% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.9% 38% -9.8%
10% +47.3% 38% -18.4%
15% +33.0% 38% -26.3%
20% +20.0% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$113 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Nether Jun 26 $20 +$65 +315%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $59 +$24 +40%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $471 −$459 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $62 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $60 +$474 +784%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 22¢ $79 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 24¢ $3 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $59 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Nether BUY 24¢ $20 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 46h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $471 13d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 13d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 13d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 100¢ $512 13d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $60 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records