Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdf64…26f3 crypto 808 markets active 1d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$115 (+2%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%483W / 325L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days−$43
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$37
crypto 17% +$6
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.6% -3.5% 64% 44% -6.4%
≤30d 384 -12.9% -21.2% 54% 36% -18.7%
≤90d 808 -6.7% -15.6% 60% 36% -10.2%
all 808 -6.7% -15.6% 60% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 36% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 23% -18.8%
15% -31.0% 17% -26.6%
20% -37.8% 13% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses483 / 325
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)808 / 808
History coverage66d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 808 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +77%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +81%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1 +$1 +138%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $2 −$1 -55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $20 −$1 -7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Who wins the to Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $32 +$1 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa - Who wins the tos Jun 13 $1 +$1 +77%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 13 $1 +$1 +77%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +77%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Japan Jun 10 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $2 +$1 +51%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $12 +$1 +10%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Modena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeri Jun 08 $28 +$1 +3%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Daniella Britton Jun 08 $1 −$1 -68%
Ilkley: Harry Wendelken vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Lyon: Laslo Djere vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 08 $35 −$8 -24%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $2 −$1 -45%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $3 $0 +9%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $12 $0 +3%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $2 −$1 -47%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $14 +$2 +11%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $1 −$1 -74%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $2 +$1 +76%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 07 $1 $0 +11%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $6 −$2 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? SELL Australia 99¢ $2 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? BUY Australia 55¢ $1 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? SELL England 99¢ $3 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? BUY England 54¢ $1 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $2 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 41¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos SELL Bangladesh $0 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos BUY Bangladesh 55¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos SELL Netherlands 45¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos BUY Netherlands 49¢ $1 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $7 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $6 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins SELL Bangladesh 99¢ $2 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins BUY Bangladesh 55¢ $1 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins SELL Australia 45¢ $1 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins BUY Australia 55¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 77¢ $0 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 74¢ $18 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 79¢ $20 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Who wins the to SELL West Indies 99¢ $2 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Who wins the to BUY West Indies 50¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Who wins the to SELL New Zealand 50¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand - Who wins the to BUY New Zealand 55¢ $1 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $9 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2145 history records