Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdf64…09db politics 48 markets active 281d ago coverage 626d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$845 (-2%) realized −$845 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$707per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 626d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$1,632
world 25% +$226
other 23% −$7,373
politics 15% −$5,046
economics 2% +$27
culture 2% −$690
tech 0% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 48 -6.8% -15.7% 27% 17% -48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 17% -48.6%
10% -23.8% 15% -53.5%
15% -31.1% 10% -58.0%
20% -37.9% 8% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$850) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +64% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$548 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$845
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage626d
Avg bet$707
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy explode? Sep 11 $20 −$10 -50%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by September 30? Sep 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 11 $10 $0 +0%
NYT drop OpenAI case by March? Sep 09 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum spot ETF approved by Jan 31? Feb 01 $618 +$307 +50%
No Reddit IPO in 2024 Feb 01 $334 −$212 -64%
Will Reddit IPO at a greater than $15b valuation? Feb 01 $386 −$348 -90%
Will Reddit IPO at between $2.5b-5b valuation? Feb 01 $685 −$597 -87%
Will Solana Network go down in January? Feb 01 $98 +$2 +2%
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Vampire’ by Olivia Rodrigo win Record of the Year? Jan 31 $198 −$196 -99%
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Worship’ by Jon Batiste win Record of the Year? Jan 31 $199 −$198 -99%
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA win Record of the Year? Jan 31 $342 −$296 -86%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jan 29 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Kari Lake win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jan 29 $484 −$484 -100%
Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire? Jan 29 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Ring of Fire have no official winner? Jan 29 $969 −$969 -100%
Will Oleksandr Usyk beat Tyson Fury in Ring of Fire? Jan 29 $560 −$560 -100%
Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 30-35% Jan 14 $342 −$342 -100%
Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 35-40% Jan 14 $365 −$365 -100%
Will Trump lose the 2024 Iowa Caucus? Jan 14 $455 −$455 -100%
Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 20-25% Jan 14 $406 −$406 -100%
Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus 25-30% Jan 14 $346 −$346 -100%
Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus <20% Jan 14 $434 −$434 -100%
Trump margin of victory in Iowa Caucus >40% Jan 14 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? Jan 14 $1,344 −$1,344 -100%
Will Trump place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? Jan 14 $1,382 −$1,382 -100%
Will DeSantis place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? Jan 14 $896 −$896 -100%
Will someone else place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? Jan 14 $1,399 −$1,399 -100%
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? Jan 14 $574 −$574 -100%
Bitcoin ETF doesn't get approval by Jan 15? Jan 14 $220 +$51 +23%
$BTC price between $45,000-47,500 1 hour after ETF approval? Jan 14 $710 +$395 +56%
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? Jan 13 $3,394 +$806 +24%
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Hou Yu-ih win? Jan 13 $3,676 +$524 +14%
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win? Jan 13 $1,108 −$1,104 -100%
BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? Jan 11 $789 −$776 -98%
BTC ETFs first week combined AUM between $30-60 billion? Jan 11 $169 +$509 +301%
$BTC price between $47,500-50,000 1 hour after ETF approval? Jan 10 $10 +$308 +3082%
$BTC price <$40,000 1 hour after ETF approval? Jan 10 $27 +$18 +66%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Jan 10 $2,690 −$938 -35%
$BTC price between $42,500-45,000 1 hour after ETF approval? Jan 10 $1,106 −$1,039 -94%
SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 8? Jan 09 $2,911 +$46 +2%
Fed rate cut by January 31? Jan 04 $807 +$27 +3%
Will BTC hit $50,000 in 2023? Jan 01 $564 +$6 +1%
OpenAI settlement with NYT by March? Dec 29 $22 −$10 -46%
Will 'The Color Purple' gross over $20m on Christmas Day? Dec 29 $250 $0 +0%
Will ETH hit $2,500 by EOY? Dec 28 $850 −$520 -61%
Will US attack Yemen in 2023? Dec 27 $36 −$4 -11%
Ayatollah Khamenei still in power in Iran by June 30? Dec 27 $400 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy explode? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 281d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy explode? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 281d
No Reddit IPO in 2024 SELL Yes 15¢ $30 869d
Will Reddit IPO at a less than $2.5b valuation? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $12.5b-15b valuation? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 869d
Will Reddit IPO at a greater than $15b valuation? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $10b-12.5b valuation? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $5b-7.5b valuation? SELL Yes 28¢ $56 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $7.5b-10b valuation? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $2.5b-5b valuation? BUY No 77¢ $154 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $12.5b-15b valuation? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $10b-12.5b valuation? SELL Yes 9¢ $36 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $7.5b-10b valuation? SELL Yes 15¢ $60 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $5b-7.5b valuation? SELL Yes 27¢ $108 869d
Will Reddit IPO at between $2.5b-5b valuation? SELL Yes 22¢ $88 869d
Will Reddit IPO at a less than $2.5b valuation? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 869d
No Reddit IPO in 2024 BUY No 84¢ $334 869d
Will Reddit IPO at a greater than $15b valuation? BUY No 96¢ $386 869d
Will Solana Network go down in January? BUY No 98¢ $98 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘On My Mama’ by Victoria Monet win Record of the Ye SELL Yes 0¢ $0 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Vampire’ by Olivia Rodrigo win Record of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Not Strong Enough’ by boygenius win Record of the SELL Yes 2¢ $3 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will 'What Was I Made For?' by Billie Eilish win Record SELL Yes 22¢ $49 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Anti-Hero’ by Taylor Swift win Record of the Year? SELL Yes 26¢ $58 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus win Record of the Year? SELL Yes 28¢ $62 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Worship’ by Jon Batiste win Record of the Year? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA win Record of the Year? BUY No 77¢ $171 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus win Record of the Year? SELL Yes 28¢ $56 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA win Record of the Year? SELL Yes 23¢ $46 870d
GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘On My Mama’ by Victoria Monet win Record of the Ye SELL Yes 0¢ $0 870d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 350 history records