Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DF 0xdf64…436e crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$205 (+17%) realized +$154 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +34.9% +22.0% 67% 67% -24.7%
≤30d 3 +34.9% +22.0% 67% 67% -24.7%
≤90d 3 +34.9% +22.0% 67% 67% -24.7%
all 3 +34.9% +22.0% 67% 67% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.0% 67% -24.7%
10% +10.4% 67% -31.9%
15% -0.3% 67% -38.5%
20% -10.1% 67% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$288 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 44¢ 72¢ $95 $157 +$62 (+65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Up 62¢ 57¢ $150 $139 −$11 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $618 −$288 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$99 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$52 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $155 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $107 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $164 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 44¢ $100 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.13 · official $296.13 (match) · 14 history records