Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DF 0xdf66…b1a3 other 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$98 (+20%) realized +$99 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%66W / 87L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$14
14 days+$11
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$77
sports 22% −$5
world 7% +$22
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% −$2
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 45% +15.7%
≤30d 29 +6.2% -3.9% 45% 45% +14.3%
≤90d 90 +6.1% -4.0% 42% 42% +3.9%
all 153 +14.0% +3.1% 43% 43% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 43% +9.2%
10% -6.7% 43% -1.2%
15% -15.7% 43% -10.8%
20% -24.0% 43% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses66 / 87
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)153 / 157
History coverage145d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +143%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +121%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +110%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $6 +$18 +291%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $2 +$4 +180%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 −$21 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $20 +$22 +107%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5) May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? Apr 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $2 +$4 +188%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $2 +$5 +249%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $4 +$9 +213%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $7 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $2 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 10h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $4 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 44¢ $4 26h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $1 26h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $1 28h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $5 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $2 31h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $2 31h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 31h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $1 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.98 · official $7.98 (match) · 272 history records