Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdf67…db92 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$980 (+18%) realized +$981 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate92%49W / 4L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$991
finance 27% −$31
tech 17% +$6
sports 4% +$1
world 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 26 +1.8% -7.9% 88% 8% -10.3%
all 53 +2.6% -7.2% 92% 13% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 13% +7.6%
10% -16.1% 6% -2.7%
15% -24.2% 4% -12.1%
20% -31.6% 2% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×27.23 per $1 lost it wins $27.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$981
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses49 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage201d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $247 $246 −$1 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 15 $240 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 02 $256 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? May 21 $200 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 18 $9 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 18 $243 −$35 -14%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading May 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading May 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 11 $270 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 04 $260 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 13 above $160? Apr 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $7.00? Apr 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Apr 21 $60 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $3.50? Apr 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $145? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $170? Apr 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? Apr 14 $200 +$1 +0%
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? Apr 06 $1 $0 +22%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? Apr 06 $1 $0 +32%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $140 Week of March 30 2026? Apr 06 $67 +$1 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Apr 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $155-$160 on the final day of trading of t Mar 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$155 on the final day of trading of the w Mar 30 $68 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $150? Mar 24 $44 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $155-$160 on the final day of trading of t Mar 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$155 on the final day of trading of the w Mar 24 $130 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $60? Mar 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $155? Mar 14 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will Poland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $55 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 24 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Belgium record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $30? Feb 22 $60 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $5 +$2 +43%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 30 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 30 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 7d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 98¢ $130 7d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 7d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $200 7d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 99¢ $240 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $201 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 98¢ $200 32d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 32d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 32d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 60¢ $9 35d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 60¢ $3 35d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 60¢ $6 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes 46¢ $93 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 58¢ $52 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 58¢ $67 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes 57¢ $116 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 60¢ $124 35d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 35d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $200 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.93 · official $275.93 (match) · 272 history records