Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf68…845e other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%16W / 48L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% −$14
other 19% +$8
politics 12% −$11
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% +$2
sports 2% +$79
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 52 +3.2% -6.6% 25% 17% -8.2%
all 64 +2.5% -7.3% 25% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 14% -9.3%
10% -16.2% 14% -17.9%
15% -24.3% 14% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage602d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $204 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $340 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $174 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $172 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $176 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $362 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 26 $184 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $174 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $357 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $176 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $182 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $13 +$8 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$17 +172%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $17 +$11 +70%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $12 +$13 +109%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 03 $7 +$4 +64%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $48 $0 +0%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Mar 31 $23 +$33 +144%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 31 $38 +$24 +64%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $96 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 21d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 25d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 26d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 28d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 28d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $164 30d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $164 30d
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $14 34d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $174 36d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $174 36d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 57¢ $12 37d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $173 37d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $174 37d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $173 39d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $173 39d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $185 41d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $185 41d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $171 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.09 · official $96.09 (match) · 299 history records