Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
DF 0xdf68…20d8 politics 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 288d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$8,793 (+14%) realized +$7,803 · open +$990
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%31W / 15L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$972per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$25,820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$474
14 days+$453
30 days+$2,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$2,950
finance 21% +$1,875
world 9% +$2,041
tech 9% +$1,536
crypto 5% +$1,039
economics 3% −$667
sports 2% +$70
other 1% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +73.0% +56.5% 100% 100% +55.1%
≤30d 9 +27.5% +15.4% 89% 78% +11.4%
≤90d 30 +67.1% +51.2% 57% 50% +4.9%
all 46 +48.6% +34.4% 67% 59% +10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.4% 59% +10.7%
10% +21.6% 39% +0.1%
15% +9.8% 33% -9.5%
20% -1.0% 26% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$780) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +113% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$321 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$25,820
Realized+$7,803
Unrealized+$990
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses31 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)46 / 63
History coverage288d
Avg bet$972
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $8,363 $6,932 −$1,431 (-17%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 84¢ 100¢ $5,068 $5,988 +$920 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 66¢ 99¢ $2,906 $4,355 +$1,449 (+50%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $3,532 $4,046 +$514 (+15%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 56¢ 44¢ $2,548 $2,029 −$518 (-20%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1,125 $1,065 −$60 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-1%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 13¢ 31¢ $90 $220 +$130 (+144%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? No 92¢ 88¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 79¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$15 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $160 +$240 +150%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $403 +$219 +54%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 14 $476 +$24 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? Jun 01 $190 +$34 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $480 +$320 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 01 $685 +$149 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 01 $6,479 +$1,134 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $1,277 −$1,258 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 24 $1,179 +$520 +44%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 24 $192 −$186 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 19 $64 +$5 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 14 $114 −$112 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $37 +$700 +1867%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 12 $700 +$700 +100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $400 +$812 +203%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $100 +$614 +614%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $1,716 +$1,184 +69%
Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Na Apr 02 $142 +$58 +41%
Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Trump say "Sacrifice" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $416 −$415 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 01 $222 −$222 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs David Jorda San Apr 01 $200 +$35 +18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 01 $120 −$120 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 01 $780 −$780 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 01 $672 −$672 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 17 $1,325 +$308 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 17 $1,264 +$735 +58%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on October 27? Nov 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next Prime Minister of France? Nov 26 $3,958 +$2,557 +65%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Nov 21 $100 +$25 +25%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander Zverev Nov 05 $800 +$120 +15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $1,000 +$111 +11%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $2,885 +$194 +7%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? Nov 05 $779 −$779 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 27? Oct 28 $65 +$35 +54%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 27? Oct 28 $199 +$22 +11%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 27? Oct 28 $328 +$72 +22%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 16? Oct 19 $4,212 +$1,382 +33%
French election called by October 10? Oct 16 $653 +$352 +54%
France debt downgrade by December 31? Oct 07 $40 +$15 +36%
French election called by September 15? Oct 07 $100 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $201 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $605 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $302 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 33¢ $92 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 20¢ $136 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $100 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 6¢ $51 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $531 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 11¢ $573 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $1,017 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $4 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $140 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $531 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $2,536 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $875 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 13¢ $729 9d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 1? BUY Up 95¢ $476 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 82¢ $3,022 22d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 63¢ $1,074 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 84¢ $75 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 89¢ $49 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 89¢ $198 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 89¢ $182 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 88¢ $983 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 89¢ $1 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 89¢ $182 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 84¢ $171 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 89¢ $182 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 84¢ $171 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,820.33 · official $26,046.24 (match) · 409 history records