Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DF 0xdf69…374d sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$49 (+43%) realized +$85 · open −$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown6%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 189d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+45.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+140.6%	+117.6%	100%	100%	+84.9%
≤30d	2	+140.6%	+117.6%	100%	100%	+84.9%
≤90d	2	+140.6%	+117.6%	100%	100%	+84.9%
all	3	+60.4%	+45.1%	67%	67%	+74.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+45.1%	67%	+74.1%
10%	+31.2%	67%	+57.4%
15%	+18.5%	67%	+42.2%
20%	+6.9%	67%	+28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +104% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$3 · ×8.39 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×16.79 per $1 lost it wins $16.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized+$85

Unrealized−$36

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage189d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown6%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	55¢	36¢	$40	$26	−$14 (-35%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Spirit	73¢	0¢	$22	$0	−$22 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$37	+$26	+70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 19	$12	+$25	+211%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	Dec 13	$3	−$3	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	73¢	$22	58m
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$41	1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	SELL FURIA	100¢	$63	3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	58¢	$37	3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$37	19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	31¢	$9	23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	33¢	$3	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	BUY Spirit	38¢	$3	188d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.04 · official $27.87 · 8 history records