Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DF 0xdf6c…eb44 other 348 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 547d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,906 (+11%) realized +$8,858 · open −$1,952
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%174W / 129L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$5,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$539
7 days+$723
14 days+$791
30 days+$1,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,600
politics 30% +$3,019
world 18% +$1,559
culture 5% +$195
sports 2% +$203
tech 0% −$33
crypto 0% +$9
economics 0% −$9
finance 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +56.8% +41.9% 80% 40% +11.4%
≤30d 27 +85.6% +68.0% 74% 41% +11.8%
≤90d 115 +14.3% +3.4% 58% 40% -4.1%
all 303 +11.5% +0.9% 57% 39% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 39% +4.2%
10% -8.8% 27% -5.8%
15% -17.6% 19% -14.9%
20% -25.7% 15% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$45 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$5,077
Realized+$8,858
Unrealized−$1,952
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses174 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions44
Markets (closed)303 / 348
History coverage547d ⚠
Avg bet$188
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 78¢ 84¢ $1,286 $1,378 +$91 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $728 $740 +$12 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 56¢ 90¢ $270 $435 +$165 (+61%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 78¢ 84¢ $360 $384 +$24 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 70¢ 100¢ $260 $369 +$108 (+42%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $192 $201 +$8 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 83¢ 95¢ $173 $199 +$25 (+15%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 63¢ 48¢ $254 $192 −$62 (-24%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? No 92¢ 99¢ $137 $149 +$11 (+8%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $92 $115 +$23 (+25%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $84 $111 +$26 (+31%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $92 $100 +$8 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $90 $98 +$9 (+10%)
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $72 $78 +$7 (+9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $61 $58 −$3 (-5%)
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $55 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-13%)
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+102%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 85¢ 99¢ $33 $39 +$6 (+17%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 56¢ $28 $39 +$11 (+39%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 70¢ 94¢ $24 $33 +$8 (+34%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $67 $29 −$38 (-57%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+17%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 26¢ 35¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+35%)
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 9¢ 23¢ $9 $23 +$14 (+162%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $128 −$109 -86%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $966 +$270 +28%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? Jun 21 $42 +$4 +10%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 21 $60 +$24 +40%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $70 +$350 +498%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $79 +$55 +69%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,301 +$127 +10%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $16 $0 -2%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $398 +$2 +1%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 +$9 +30%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 +$4 +13%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $424 +$54 +13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $177 +$3 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $141 +$2 +1%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 05 $35 +$3 +7%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 04 $14 −$4 -30%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +6%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $106 +$38 +35%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 01 $196 +$29 +15%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? May 28 $6 +$3 +44%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $11 +$224 +2021%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 25 $118 +$9 +7%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Moldova win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $70 −$40 -57%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ukraine win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $345 −$345 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $488 −$488 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $133 +$12 +9%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $14 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 73¢ $146 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 4¢ $10 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $30 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $159 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $14 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $13 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $22 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $5 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $128 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $2 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $99 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $10 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $43 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $31 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $210 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $100 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $259 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,077.36 · official $5,077.39 (match) · 3500 history records