Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf6d…9c5c other 99 markets active 59d ago coverage 122d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$104,066 (+29%) realized +$103,915 · open +$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%45W / 333L
Whale WR16%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,616per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$18,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$2,756
other 38% +$11,012
world 6% +$7,886
sports 2% +$75
economics 1% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -38.6% -44.4% 5% 5% -74.9%
≤30d 283 -38.6% -44.4% 5% 5% -74.9%
≤90d 291 -30.5% -37.2% 7% 5% -31.5%
all 378 -1.3% -10.7% 12% 10% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 10% -33.2%
10% -19.2% 9% -39.6%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 9% -45.4%
20% -34.2% 8% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 16% (≥$584) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
28.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,058 vs −$446 · ×4.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$18,133
Realized+$103,915
Unrealized+$151
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses45 / 333
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions117
Markets (closed)378 / 99
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$3,616
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 117 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 86¢ $2,778 $4,780 +$2,003 (+72%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 60¢ 48¢ $2,716 $2,198 −$517 (-19%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 54¢ 60¢ $1,851 $2,039 +$188 (+10%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 19¢ 9¢ $2,970 $1,425 −$1,545 (-52%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 4¢ 74¢ $69 $1,250 +$1,181 (+1714%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 37¢ 14¢ $2,803 $1,048 −$1,755 (-63%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 14¢ 82¢ $98 $573 +$475 (+486%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $263 $307 +$44 (+17%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 8¢ 61¢ $40 $303 +$263 (+657%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $34 $217 +$183 (+547%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $39 $201 +$163 (+421%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $39 $187 +$148 (+380%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $22 $187 +$165 (+749%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $111 $137 +$26 (+24%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $172 $119 −$53 (-31%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $7 $117 +$110 (+1580%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $148 $117 −$31 (-21%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $86 $113 +$27 (+32%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $54 $112 +$58 (+108%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $115 $103 −$13 (-11%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $30 $91 +$62 (+209%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $22 $89 +$67 (+306%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $18 $88 +$70 (+380%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $44 $77 +$33 (+75%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $22 $73 +$51 (+232%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 354 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $1.4B and $1.6B? Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 Jun 29 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 29 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 29 $119 −$119 -100%
US recession in 2025? Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Jun 29 $649 −$649 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 29 $5 −$24 -466%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 29 $249 −$182 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 29 $119 −$119 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? Jun 29 $302 −$282 -93%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 202 Jun 29 $50 −$82 -164%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 29 $61 −$61 -100%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Jun 29 $575 −$575 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 29 $1,036 −$1,022 -99%
Will Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral el Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $509 −$509 -100%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Jun 29 $43 +$106 +244%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $201 −$586 -291%
Will Shedeur Sanders be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 29 $61 −$61 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jun 29 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $385 −$385 -100%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $800M and $1B? Jun 29 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 19% and 22% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayo Jun 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025? Jun 29 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 29 $584 −$584 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Jun 29 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $478 −$455 -95%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $4,573 −$3,871 -85%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%? Jun 29 $97 −$14 -14%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more? Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Jun 29 $2,281 −$1,322 -58%
Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 29 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 29 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%? Jun 29 $174 −$179 -103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 59d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $40 59d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $50 59d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $50 59d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $40 59d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $30 59d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $50 59d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 59d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 9¢ $52 59d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $915 59d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $3 59d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $39 59d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $78 59d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,803 60d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 7¢ $0 61d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 7¢ $4 62d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 7¢ $0 62d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 7¢ $5 63d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 63d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 63d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 63d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 7¢ $9 66d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 27¢ $121 70d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 70d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 27¢ $474 70d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $35 72d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 73d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 73d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 73d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 41¢ $683 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,133.49 · official $18,127.89 (match) · 3500 history records