Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DF 0xdf6e…c865 sports 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$389 (+2%) realized +$391 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%139W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$26
14 days+$99
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$723
other 47% −$467
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 50% -14.0%
≤30d 32 -33.5% -39.8% 38% 34% -26.4%
≤90d 142 -2.1% -11.4% 53% 52% -9.2%
all 252 +13.7% +2.8% 55% 55% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 55% -8.2%
10% -7.0% 52% -17.0%
15% -16.0% 43% -25.0%
20% -24.2% 35% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$61 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$391
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses139 / 113
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)252 / 254
History coverage208d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 63¢ $209 $209 +$0 (+0%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 70¢ 69¢ $210 $208 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $135 −$133 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $174 +$76 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$148 +146%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $119 −$118 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $37 +$13 +36%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $111 +$89 +79%
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 07 $34 +$11 +32%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-05? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? Jun 04 $33 −$33 -100%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? Jun 04 $41 −$41 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 04 $87 −$87 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? Jun 04 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 04 $82 −$82 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $88 −$88 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 02 $59 −$58 -98%
FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $75 +$33 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? May 31 $84 −$83 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $27 +$23 +83%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $132 +$41 +31%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-03? May 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC end in a draw? May 28 $150 +$60 +40%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner May 25 $1 $0 -4%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5 May 22 $117 +$303 +259%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5 May 18 $109 +$101 +93%
Real Oviedo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 May 17 $39 +$42 +109%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 1.5 May 17 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $33 +$30 +90%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $165 +$112 +67%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 May 16 $27 +$42 +158%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $93 +$69 +74%
FC Anyang vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $29 +$40 +134%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. PSV: O/U 2.5 May 10 $82 +$33 +40%
Will AZ win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $27 +$10 +38%
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 10 $81 +$37 +46%
AS Saint-Étienne vs. Amiens SC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $70 +$77 +109%
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 3.5 May 06 $9 +$5 +57%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $102 +$37 +36%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $14 +$15 +109%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $92 +$64 +70%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $89 −$89 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $10 +$8 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $99 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $113 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $212 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $135 16h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 69¢ $174 42h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $119 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $102 3d
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $4 14d
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $30 14d
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $38 15d
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $37 15d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 29¢ $59 17d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 49¢ $84 18d
FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $49 19d
FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 19d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 55¢ $111 21d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 79¢ $34 21d
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 27¢ $26 23d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 76¢ $77 23d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 75¢ $0 23d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 75¢ $55 23d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 24d
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? BUY No 56¢ $33 24d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner SELL Lilmix 29¢ $1 25d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 29¢ $1 25d
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $150 28d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 28d
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $74 28d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? SELL Yes 73¢ $32 28d
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $12 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.63 · official $417.66 (match) · 654 history records