Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf6f…1079 weather 236 markets active 1d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate77%182W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$1
sports 16% +$2
other 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 24 -2.2% -11.5% 96% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 118 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 15% -9.8%
all 236 -1.0% -10.4% 77% 33% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 33% -10.1%
10% -19.0% 21% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 16% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses182 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage111d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? Jun 18 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 30? May 31 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 29? May 30 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 23? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 22? May 23 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 17? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 15? May 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15? May 15 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 14? May 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 13? May 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 13? May 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 12? May 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on May 12? May 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 11? May 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 11? May 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 11? May 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 10? May 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 9? May 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 8? May 09 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on May 7? May 08 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 5? May 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 4? May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 3? May 04 $6 +$1 +9%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 03 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 2? May 02 $7 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $13 28h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $11 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 96¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? BUY No 97¢ $10 13d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 1? BUY No 98¢ $10 17d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 31? BUY No 98¢ $9 18d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 18d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 19d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $9 20d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28? SELL No 98¢ $5 20d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28? BUY No 95¢ $5 20d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 96¢ $11 25d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 22? BUY No 96¢ $11 27d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 32d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 16? SELL No 89¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 490 history records