Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf74…9148 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-12%) realized −$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-76.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -73.9% -76.3% 0% 0% -75.6%
≤30d 2 -73.9% -76.3% 0% 0% -75.6%
≤90d 2 -73.9% -76.3% 0% 0% -75.6%
all 2 -73.9% -76.3% 0% 0% -75.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.3% 0% -75.6%
10% -78.6% 0% -77.9%
15% -80.7% 0% -80.0%
20% -82.6% 0% -82.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.24 · official $8.17 (match) · 10 history records