Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf77…6d05 crypto 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$441 (+2%) realized +$441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate66%114W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$42
14 days−$176
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2
sports 2% +$47
other 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +17.9% +6.6% 64% 56% -7.0%
≤30d 167 +1.8% -7.9% 66% 42% -9.3%
≤90d 167 +1.8% -7.9% 66% 42% -9.3%
all 174 +0.7% -8.9% 66% 42% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 42% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 30% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 23% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 16% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$55 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses114 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage197d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$28 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$23 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $94 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $190 −$21 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $111 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$99 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$43 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$30 +388%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $403 −$403 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 02 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $309 +$229 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $307 +$154 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 02 $359 −$34 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $832 +$48 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $233 +$86 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $202 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $230 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 02 $75 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 02 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 02 $55 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $112 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 02 $44 +$105 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $112 −$20 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 02 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 02 $55 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 02 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $61 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $91 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 453 history records