Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

DF 0xdf7b…aaff other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized −$69 · open +$93

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip

Net edge+60%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%7W / 17L

Drawdown79%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$106

7 days+$168

14 days+$148

30 days+$148

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)+66.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+102.3%	+83.0%	27%	27%	+29.0%
≤30d	24	+83.8%	+66.3%	29%	29%	+11.3%
≤90d	24	+83.8%	+66.3%	29%	29%	+11.3%
all	24	+83.8%	+66.3%	29%	29%	+11.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+66.3%	29%	+11.3%
10%	+50.4%	29%	+0.6%
15%	+35.8%	29%	-9.1%
20%	+22.5%	29%	-18.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +84% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +131% → late +36% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$102 vs −$33 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.26 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$231

Realized−$69

Unrealized+$93

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses7 / 17

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)24 / 48

History coverage11d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown79%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	16¢	34¢	$90	$191	+$101 (+112%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$48	$40	−$9 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 23	$92	−$90	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$41	+$245	+596%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal?	Jun 22	$14	−$14	-97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$14	−$14	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$14	−$14	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$14	−$14	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$14	−$14	-97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay?	Jun 19	$7	−$7	-97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Czechia	Jun 19	$14	+$120	+837%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa?	Jun 18	$77	−$75	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$44	−$43	-97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$10	+$115	+1115%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$10	+$9	+86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$41	+$110	+270%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$7	−$7	-97%
Spread: Germany (-5.5)	Jun 15	$14	+$52	+365%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$14	−$13	-91%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$7	−$7	-98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$14	+$63	+442%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5	Jun 14	$14	−$14	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$200	−$200	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	16¢	$92	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: Any Other Sco	BUY	3¢	$10	11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: Any Other Sco	BUY	37¢	$10	11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-2.5)	BUY	11¢	$21	11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will C	BUY	4¢	$14	13h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	24h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$92	24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Se	BUY	2¢	$8	36h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal?	BUY Yes	3¢	$14	36h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$41	36h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina vs. Austria end in	BUY	7¢	$29	37h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	10¢	$14	2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	6¢	$14	2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? AND Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi	BUY	2¢	$7	2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$14	2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	1¢	$14	2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	6¢	$14	2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? AND Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 I	BUY	3¢	$14	2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye win o	BUY	7¢	$14	4d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 1	BUY	3¢	$7	4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	4¢	$7	4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: United States 1	BUY	3¢	$7	4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: United States 1	BUY	1¢	$7	4d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi	BUY	10¢	$29	4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico	BUY	11¢	$29	5d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? AND Exact Score: Canada 2 -	BUY	2¢	$14	5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Czechia	BUY	10¢	$14	5d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa?	BUY Yes	5¢	$77	5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? AND Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 P	BUY	4¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.23 · official $245.23 · 75 history records