Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf7c…4c16
sports · 529 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,830 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,873 · open −$247
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,542
Realized−$3,873
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses232 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,355
Open positions10
Markets (closed)519 / 529
History coverage65d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 519 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,005
7 days+$3,188
14 days+$1,810
30 days−$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 39¢ 100¢ $460 $1,185 +$726 (+158%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 96¢ $248 $270 +$22 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+71%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 39¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Top Esports 36¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Top Esports 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 53¢ 0¢ $901 $0 −$901 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,041 −$901 -86%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $108 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $247 −$247 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $473 −$296 -63%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $584 +$634 +108%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $241 +$331 +137%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $438 +$224 +51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $472 +$245 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $408 +$458 +112%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $206 −$206 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 +$71 +24%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $71 +$84 +119%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $552 +$688 +124%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $696 +$1,067 +153%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$102 +125%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $410 +$590 +144%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $123 $0 -0%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $203 +$111 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $229 +$85 +37%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $183 −$69 -37%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $381 −$25 -6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $442 −$442 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $70 +$35 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $694 +$667 +96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$47 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $235 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $425 +$173 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $290 +$272 +94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $450 +$175 +39%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $126 −$126 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $165 +$41 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $123 +$38 +31%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $122 +$75 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $512 +$274 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $249 +$83 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $366 +$150 +41%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $91 −$91 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $13 +$17 +123%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $71 +$22 +31%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $678 +$438 +65%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Pl Jun 09 $50 +$36 +73%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,061 −$1,027 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $315 +$140 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $280 +$206 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$4,185
other 0% +$60
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $267 53m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $377 53m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 38¢ $122 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 37¢ $124 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 46¢ $20 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 22¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $114 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $108 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 48¢ $71 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 52¢ $123 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 36¢ $114 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $101 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 41¢ $122 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 40¢ $102 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $113 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $123 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $15 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $113 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $112 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $117 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $123 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 36¢ $51 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $51 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $51 3h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 17¢ $53 13h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 17¢ $116 13h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 57¢ $102 13h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 40¢ $124 13h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 39¢ $79 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 26¢ $104 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +1.3% -8.3% 56% 56% +6.2%
≤30d 223 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 42% -10.4%
≤90d 519 -7.0% -15.9% 45% 42% -13.6%
all 519 -7.0% -15.9% 45% 42% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 42% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 39% -21.8%
15% -31.3% 32% -29.4%
20% -38.0% 25% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,541.69 · official $1,540.69 (match) · 2041 history records