Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf7d…de4b world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1
other 18% $0
politics 16% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 19 -0.6% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -0.6% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage289d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $38 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $23 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $1 $0 -5%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 02 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on Se Sep 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 09 $1 $0 -21%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 08 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $18 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $17 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $38 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $38 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $7 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $23 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $35 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $17 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $18 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 9¢ $4 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $3 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $39 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $39 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records