Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf7e…87c6 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-8%) realized −$32 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day63.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$54
other 19% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -27.7% -34.6% 35% 35% -20.6%
≤30d 52 -27.7% -34.6% 35% 35% -20.6%
≤90d 52 -27.7% -34.6% 35% 35% -20.6%
all 52 -27.7% -34.6% 35% 35% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.6% 35% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.9% 33% -28.2%
15% -46.6% 31% -35.1%
20% -51.8% 25% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day63.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 10¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+405%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$11 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$3 +280%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$3 +313%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +78%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$22 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$11 +115%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $46 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $40 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.05 (match) · 83 history records