Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf83…384c other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%46W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$86
14 days−$16
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$98
sports 35% −$65
crypto 2% −$21
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 45% -22.1%
≤30d 90 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 47% -9.5%
≤90d 90 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 47% -9.5%
all 90 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 47% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 47% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 40% -18.1%
15% -24.6% 37% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 27% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses46 / 44
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage27d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $60 +$8 +14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$15 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$17 +331%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$11 +42%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$52 -85%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$59 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 +$38 +68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -62%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$25 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +223%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$52 +126%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$54 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 23h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $33 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 42h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 47h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $36 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.14 · official $32.14 (match) · 219 history records