Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf85…f199
crypto · 720 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$31 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses366 / 332
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)698 / 720
History coverage7d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day239.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 22 History 698 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$48
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 67¢ 97¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+45%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 58¢ 76¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? No 35¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 39¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 59¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? No 66¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? No 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? No 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 42¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $25 −$9 -36%
Solana Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +88%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$8 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$2 -14%
XRP Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$20 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$19 +120%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$31 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$91 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$26
weather 1% −$4
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 640 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 48% -10.4%
≤30d 698 -0.6% -10.0% 52% 48% -10.0%
≤90d 698 -0.6% -10.0% 52% 48% -10.0%
all 698 -0.6% -10.0% 52% 48% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover239.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 48% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 45% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 41% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 36% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.55 · official $63.55 (match) · 2457 history records