Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf86…68aa world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$4
other 29% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 10% −$11
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.3% -6.5% 44% 11% -9.9%
≤30d 26 +3.3% -6.6% 35% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 62 +1.3% -8.3% 32% 3% -9.7%
all 63 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -10.1%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage481d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 20¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+217%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $79 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $88 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $18 +$1 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $83 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $56 −$2 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $122 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $60 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $44 +$2 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $36 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $159 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $43 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $77 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $31 2h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $25 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $24 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $39 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $40 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $30 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $29 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $12 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $15 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $39 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $9 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $9 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $22 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $3 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $43 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $18 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.46 · official $0.00 · 273 history records