Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf86…bf96 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
crypto 28% −$1
other 22% +$4
politics 9% $0
sports 2% +$1
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.1% -12.3% 62% 12% -8.2%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.8% 75% 25% -8.1%
≤90d 14 +5.0% -5.0% 79% 29% -8.0%
all 15 -2.0% -11.3% 73% 27% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 27% -8.2%
10% -19.8% 7% -17.0%
15% -27.6% 7% -25.0%
20% -34.7% 7% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage139d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $121 $120 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $6 −$3 -48%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 18 $36 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $31 −$4 -14%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $106 +$8 +8%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 18 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 24 $3 $0 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 24 $105 +$3 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $104 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 15 $1 +$1 +60%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $3 $0 +2%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $66 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $123 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $113 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 96¢ $10 25d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 86¢ $9 25d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $106 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $104 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 34d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $105 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 81¢ $3 34d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY MOUZ 85¢ $3 34d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 40d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 40d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 40d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 62¢ $1 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 84¢ $1 40d
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 110d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl BUY Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming 78¢ $1 110d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $1 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.49 · official $248.49 (match) · 76 history records