Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf87…2974 crypto 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,960 (-19%) realized −$1,850 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%34W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$429
7 days−$982
14 days−$1,079
30 days−$1,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$1,333
other 32% −$559
crypto 15% −$770
world 7% +$816
politics 3% −$278
economics 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -50.7% -55.4% 21% 15% -52.0%
≤30d 44 -46.2% -51.3% 25% 20% -42.2%
≤90d 135 -40.6% -46.2% 25% 21% -32.3%
all 135 -40.6% -46.2% 25% 21% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.2% 21% -32.3%
10% -51.4% 20% -38.8%
15% -56.1% 15% -44.7%
20% -60.4% 13% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$42 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,742
Realized−$1,850
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses34 / 101
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions3
Markets (closed)135 / 138
History coverage80d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,155 $1,145 −$10 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $460 $428 −$32 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $238 $170 −$68 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$42 -82%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $181 −$179 -99%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $169 −$33 -19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$87 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $219 −$88 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $42 −$35 -84%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $32 +$12 +38%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $12 −$9 -71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $89 +$67 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $99 +$92 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $479 −$363 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$7 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$23 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $17 −$12 -70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $58 −$55 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 +$6 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $138 −$37 -27%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $307 −$307 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $238 +$75 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $252 +$60 +24%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $95 +$86 +90%
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction - Game 2 Winner May 22 $57 −$39 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 22 $21 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 22 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 22 $16 −$5 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,188 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 23h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 74¢ $181 42h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $137 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $44 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $131 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $131 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $219 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 16¢ $44 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,742.44 · official $1,744.44 (match) · 958 history records