Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf8a…12ff other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate13%6W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$5
politics 28% −$1
other 16% −$1
sports 7% −$3
tech 6% $0
crypto 4% +$1
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 6 +71.0% +54.7% 33% 17% -7.7%
all 46 +7.1% -3.1% 13% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 2% -9.3%
10% -12.3% 2% -18.0%
15% -20.8% 2% -25.9%
20% -28.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses6 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage302d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $56 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $58 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $40 +$3 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 23 $4 −$3 -68%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 10 $6 $0 -5%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 09 $38 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 02 $1 $0 -20%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $2 $0 +6%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $21 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $23 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $56 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $58 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $58 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $19 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $12 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $55 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $50 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 30d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 22¢ $1 91d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 22¢ $1 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.60 · official $25.62 (match) · 188 history records