Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdf8e…b1d0 sports 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$189 (+4%) realized +$204 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate47%78W / 89L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$53
14 days+$161
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$151
other 36% +$8
politics 1% −$16
crypto 0% −$8
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +7.5% -2.7% 45% 24% -7.8%
≤30d 167 +9.0% -1.4% 47% 24% -6.2%
≤90d 167 +9.0% -1.4% 47% 24% -6.2%
all 167 +9.0% -1.4% 47% 24% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 24% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 18% -15.2%
15% -19.4% 14% -23.4%
20% -27.3% 12% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses78 / 89
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 168
History coverage26d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 14¢ 1¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $205 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 −$1 -8%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $6 +$5 +78%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $135 +$1 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$8 +190%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $24 −$2 -8%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $41 +$1 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$1 -7%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 +$33 +163%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $152 +$3 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $0 $0 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $318 −$3 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $160 +$5 +3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $31 −$4 -14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$12 +250%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3 +$10 +342%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $2 $0 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $53 −$1 -1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 −$18 -85%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 -9%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$14 +134%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -14%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $150 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $9 +$6 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $280 +$12 +4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $55 −$1 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 −$8 -38%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $3 −$1 -32%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $143 +$18 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 −$9 -57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $7 −$4 -51%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $150 +$1 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $150 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $205 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 4¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $6 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 7¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $6 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $1 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 20¢ $6 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $2 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 94¢ $133 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $4 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $0 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $6 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 89¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 89¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.56 · official $1.56 (match) · 762 history records