Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf8e…f6f7 crypto 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$18 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%93W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$11
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$4
other 13% +$4
sports 3% −$6
world 1% −$10
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -13.0% -21.2% 41% 41% -18.1%
≤30d 32 -15.2% -23.3% 41% 41% -20.4%
≤90d 188 -14.9% -23.0% 49% 41% -11.8%
all 188 -14.9% -23.0% 49% 41% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 41% -11.8%
10% -30.3% 32% -20.3%
15% -37.1% 24% -28.0%
20% -43.2% 20% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses93 / 95
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)188 / 195
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+80%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$8 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$9 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$9 -83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$9 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 06 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 06 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 06 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 06 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 02 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 02 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 22h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 23h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 25h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 39h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.88 · official $28.88 (match) · 456 history records