Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DF 0xdf90…e485 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-22%) realized −$80 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$31
sports 39% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-78.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.9% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 2 -51.5% -56.1% 0% 0% -65.9%
≤90d 2 -51.5% -56.1% 0% 0% -65.9%
all 4 -75.7% -78.0% 0% 0% -83.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.0% 0% -83.4%
10% -80.1% 0% -85.0%
15% -82.1% 0% -86.4%
20% -83.8% 0% -87.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$22 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)4 / 19
History coverage132d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 7¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$1 -3%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $32 −$32 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5) Feb 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 0m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 0m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentin BUY 3¢ $10 22m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY 67¢ $20 36m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 73¢ $20 38m
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 7¢ $20 55m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 53¢ $20 58m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 52¢ $19 1h
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 1h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY Yes 52¢ $19 1h
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $20 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $20 1h
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 36¢ $32 28d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 126d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 126d
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5) BUY Cavaliers 16¢ $5 131d
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5) BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $25 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.61 · official $271.07 · 24 history records