Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DF 0xdf91…12d9 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%35W / 50L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$42
world 35% −$15
politics 26% +$23
sports 1% +$11
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -0.7% -10.1% 21% 0% -9.9%
all 85 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 4% -9.7%
10% -15.1% 4% -18.4%
15% -23.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -30.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses35 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage474d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $107 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $158 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $158 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $144 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $148 −$4 -3%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $148 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $298 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $172 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $146 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $149 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $163 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $163 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $147 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $149 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $101 −$2 -2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $105 −$3 -3%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 24 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $1,058 −$21 -2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $1,054 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $16 −$2 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $1,131 −$6 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $74 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $368 −$20 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $1,396 +$20 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $623 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $181 −$2 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -5%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $9 $0 +5%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $3 $0 -12%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $10 $0 +5%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 29 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 27 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $85 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $107 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $158 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $158 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $96 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $62 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $158 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $114 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $144 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $144 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $148 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $148 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $48 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $148 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $1 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $132 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $17 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $162 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $162 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $108 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $108 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $13 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records