Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$2,155

14 days−$2,274

30 days−$2,274

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	36¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 08	$2	−$2	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 08	$1	+$1	+50%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	Jun 08	$2,154	−$2,154	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5?	Jun 05	$150	−$119	-79%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

world 93% −$2,154

crypto 7% −$120

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$1	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$1	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$2	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$1	3d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY No	0¢	$550	6d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY No	0¢	$673	6d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY No	0¢	$452	6d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY No	0¢	$479	7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5?	SELL No	1¢	$32	7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5?	BUY No	3¢	$150	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-61.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-49.8%	-54.6%	33%	33%	-99.9%
≤30d	4	-57.1%	-61.2%	25%	25%	-98.7%
≤90d	4	-57.1%	-61.2%	25%	25%	-98.7%
all	4	-57.1%	-61.2%	25%	25%	-98.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-61.2%	25%	-98.7%
10%	-64.9%	25%	-98.8%
15%	-68.3%	25%	-98.9%
20%	-71.4%	25%	-99.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.