Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T00:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdf94…972c crypto 1109 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (336 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$914 (-39%) realized −$860 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%22W / 1087L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day335.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$494
7 days−$1,129
14 days−$965
30 days−$965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$965
other 7% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (336 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-85.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1039 -84.3% -85.8% 2% 2% -70.1%
≤30d 1109 -83.4% -85.0% 2% 2% -65.4%
≤90d 1109 -83.4% -85.0% 2% 2% -65.4%
all 1109 -83.4% -85.0% 2% 2% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover335.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -85.0% 2% -65.4%
10% ← realistic here -86.5% 1% -68.8%
15% -87.8% 1% -71.8%
20% -89.0% 1% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$2 · ×22.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$860
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses22 / 1087
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1109 / 1109
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day335.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $90 $67 −$23 (-26%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $55 $26 −$29 (-52%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 310 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.67 · official $120.67 (match) · 3500 history records