Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdf95…7e16 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,848 (-10%) realized −$1,839 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$383
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$473
sports 32% −$1,411
world 8% +$67
crypto 2% −$201
finance 1% +$201
politics 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.7% -3.4% 50% 50% -17.6%
≤30d 6 -28.8% -35.6% 33% 33% -65.2%
≤90d 87 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 38% -20.7%
all 91 -16.2% -24.2% 38% 38% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 38% -19.9%
10% -31.4% 36% -27.6%
15% -38.1% 35% -34.6%
20% -44.1% 32% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$158 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$1,839
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 56
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage165d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $70 $61 −$9 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 +$64 +125%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 +$62 +102%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $61 −$60 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $304 −$300 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $200 +$166 +83%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $27 −$26 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 10 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $253 −$156 -62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $507 −$500 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $360 +$724 +201%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane May 09 $605 +$206 +34%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $100 +$16 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi May 09 $405 +$241 +60%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $142 −$140 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 03 $153 +$205 +134%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $142 −$140 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? May 03 $200 −$64 -32%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? May 03 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $100 +$40 +40%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 28 $425 −$425 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 28 $400 −$400 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 24 $100 +$73 +73%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $300 +$178 +60%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $150 −$150 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 20 $200 +$135 +67%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $300 +$269 +90%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $500 +$273 +55%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) Apr 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Apr 18 $92 +$68 +73%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Apr 17 $200 −$126 -63%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $100 +$146 +146%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April? Apr 16 $100 −$95 -95%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $116 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 11¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $124 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 61¢ $61 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 54¢ $304 13d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $27 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 31¢ $204 38d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 38d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 31¢ $76 38d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 52¢ $203 38d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 51¢ $304 38d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 38d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 66¢ $202 38d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse BUY Frances Tiafoe 23¢ $199 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse BUY Frances Tiafoe 67¢ $161 39d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 38¢ $116 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane BUY Flavio Cobolli 74¢ $605 39d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 56¢ $142 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 62¢ $405 40d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 42d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 44d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) BUY Manchester City FC 41¢ $102 44d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $142 45d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 21¢ $102 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.10 · official $61.10 (match) · 199 history records