Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdf96…6b1e crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$86 (+5%) realized +$91 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate87%39W / 6L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$65
politics 17% −$33
world 15% +$15
tech 11% +$70
other 4% −$33
economics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤30d 2 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤90d 5 +10.7% +0.1% 100% 60% -3.0%
all 45 -2.3% -11.6% 87% 31% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 31% -4.6%
10% -20.1% 13% -13.7%
15% -27.8% 9% -22.1%
20% -34.9% 4% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses39 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage549d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 82¢ $93 $88 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $145 +$8 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? May 19 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $23 +$4 +16%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 06 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? Jan 31 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Jan 31 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Jan 31 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jan 31 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 31 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 24 $10 $0 +4%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 24 $20 +$7 +36%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 04 $10 +$1 +6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 04 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $60 +$3 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $73 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jul 10 $40 +$6 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jun 26 $71 +$3 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? Jun 22 $35 +$3 +8%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 22 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jun 10 $60 +$4 +6%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 13 $10 +$1 +11%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? May 12 $100 +$2 +2%
US-China trade deal before June? May 12 $40 −$40 -100%
US recession in 2025? May 11 $17 +$2 +11%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority? May 03 $10 +$5 +56%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2000 on May 2? May 02 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30? May 01 $18 +$3 +14%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? May 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Trump unfreeze Harvard funding? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump x Xi talk by Friday? Apr 19 $215 +$4 +2%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 16 $176 +$80 +45%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December? Feb 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Feb 12 $0 $0 +61%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 12 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 1h
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 34d
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $44 75d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $18 75d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $27 75d
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $49 137d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 137d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 137d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $20 137d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 137d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $5 137d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $10 142d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 142d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 142d
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $20 142d
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $10 142d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $7 142d
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $8 142d
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 142d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 142d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $53 150d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 150d
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 150d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $6 150d
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 150d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 150d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 150d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 150d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua SELL Yes 99¢ $5 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.57 · official $87.57 (match) · 137 history records