Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DF 0xdf97…6106 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$601 (+24%) realized +$665 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$132
14 days+$143
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$510
other 25% −$5
economics 3% +$1
world 3% +$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -12.7% -21.0% 46% 38% -0.2%
≤30d 17 +14.5% +3.6% 59% 47% +0.1%
≤90d 25 +19.8% +8.4% 64% 44% +19.7%
all 32 +15.8% +4.7% 72% 34% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 34% +19.3%
10% -5.3% 34% +7.9%
15% -14.4% 31% -2.5%
20% -22.8% 31% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$39 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized+$665
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage176d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $253 $320 +$67 (+27%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $202 $155 −$47 (-23%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 34¢ 20¢ $212 $128 −$84 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $307 +$89 +29%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $152 −$51 -34%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $152 +$136 +90%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $142 +$156 +109%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 −$40 -40%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $21 +$23 +111%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 24 $55 +$1 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $66 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +113%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +239%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5 May 26 $5 +$4 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Apr 21 $205 +$325 +158%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 Apr 17 $100 +$109 +109%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 15 $100 −$4 -4%
U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31? Apr 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 be between 3,000,0 Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Mar 10 $3 $0 +3%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026? Mar 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Mar 10 $8 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Feb 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? Feb 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Jan 22 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $255 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $216 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $154 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 35¢ $101 22h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 23h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $152 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $156 23h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 40¢ $61 24h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 24h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 24h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $142 25h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 26h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 26h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 56¢ $101 26h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $152 26h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $56 26h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $66 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $55 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $3 30d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.27 · official $830.61 · 70 history records