Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf9d…c956 sports 469 markets active 1h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+2%) realized +$115 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%187W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$50
14 days+$5
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$115
weather 2% +$14
other 2% −$12
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +81.3% +64.0% 67% 67% +60.9%
≤30d 22 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 41% -0.1%
≤90d 148 +22.2% +10.5% 38% 36% -0.2%
all 463 +2.7% -7.0% 40% 39% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 39% -8.1%
10% -15.9% 39% -16.9%
15% -24.1% 38% -24.9%
20% -31.5% 36% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses187 / 276
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions6
Markets (closed)463 / 469
History coverage576d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 48¢ $125 $120 −$5 (-4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 100¢ $39 $50 +$11 (+28%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 62¢ 60¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+23%)
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Yes 18¢ 44¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+144%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 197 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 +$34 +68%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 10 $8 +$23 +276%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Zhu Kangjie vs. Ramon Taveras (Featherweight, Prelims May 30 $14 +$1 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $55 +$5 +8%
O/U 4.5 Rounds May 30 $12 +$13 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $37 +$23 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 30 $26 −$1 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 29 $11 −$11 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 18 $28 −$19 -66%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 17 $9 +$21 +223%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 17 $26 +$23 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $26 +$24 +92%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 17 $38 +$22 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 17 $26 +$34 +134%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 16 $24 −$24 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 15 $23 −$23 -98%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $11 +$19 +170%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 −$1 -2%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $32 +$31 +95%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $74 +$8 +11%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $61 +$42 +69%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $80 −$80 -99%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $21 −$21 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 08 $12 −$12 -99%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 07 $12 −$12 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 04 $9 +$11 +124%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca May 04 $19 +$11 +61%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 04 $17 +$13 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 04 $10 +$20 +197%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 04 $19 +$11 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) May 04 $16 +$34 +213%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 5? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 4? May 03 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 4? May 03 $6 −$6 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $24 −$24 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $17 −$14 -86%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 3? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on May 2? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 2? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 29? Apr 30 $2 +$28 +1150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $39 9h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 62¢ $3 3d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 62¢ $15 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $25 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $51 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $6 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $7 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $15 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $50 7d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 49¢ $24 8d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Tom Nolan 26¢ $8 8d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 47¢ $14 8d
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli BUY Matt Schnell 21¢ $4 8d
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli BUY Matt Schnell 21¢ $1 8d
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli BUY Matt Schnell 21¢ $1 8d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Sumudaerji 42¢ $20 15d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Perez 60¢ $36 15d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Perez 57¢ $35 15d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 18¢ $6 16d
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $12 16d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 18¢ $5 17d
UFC Fight Night: Zhu Kangjie vs. Ramon Taveras (Featherweight, Prelims BUY Zhu Kangjie 48¢ $14 19d
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Ding Meng 46¢ $1 20d
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Ding Meng 46¢ $12 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.72 · official $227.72 (match) · 1106 history records