Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfa6…bfd5
crypto · 459 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$221 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$239 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$582
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses141 / 310
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)451 / 459
History coverage74d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 451 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$359
14 days+$359
30 days+$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 27¢ 26¢ $180 $177 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 22¢ 22¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 6¢ 6¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Paraguay 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Paraguay 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $153 −$12 -8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 −$4 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$252 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $90 +$130 +145%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 21 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 21 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 18 $15 +$79 +526%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 18 $0 +$1 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 18 $15 +$73 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 18 $15 +$128 +853%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 18 $15 +$56 +371%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 18 $15 +$73 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$119
sports 9% +$97
other 5% +$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 6¢ $36 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $184 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $154 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2h
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 2¢ $10 2h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 8¢ $26 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 42¢ $141 10h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 10h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 11h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 11h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $153 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $405 13h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $220 20h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 21h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $153 27h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 29h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $90 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $50 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $50 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +30.6% +18.2% 33% 33% +64.5%
≤30d 6 +30.6% +18.2% 33% 33% +64.5%
≤90d 451 -2.5% -11.8% 31% 31% -6.2%
all 451 -2.5% -11.8% 31% 31% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 31% -6.2%
10% -20.2% 31% -15.1%
15% -27.9% 30% -23.3%
20% -35.0% 26% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.69 · official $581.74 (match) · 803 history records