Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:28:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfa8…4179
crypto · 1740 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$364 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,243 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$1,243
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1632 / 499
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2131 / 1740
History coverage37d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 2131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,335
7 days−$1,331
14 days−$1,316
30 days−$1,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 96¢ 88¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 904 -42.4% -47.8% 54% 6% -34.6%
≤30d 1895 -19.7% -27.4% 74% 10% -20.1%
≤90d 2131 -17.3% -25.2% 77% 11% -18.2%
all 2131 -17.3% -25.2% 77% 11% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 11% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 5% -26.0%
15% -38.9% 2% -33.2%
20% -44.9% 2% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.88 · official $20.61 (match) · 3500 history records