Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfaa…5eb8 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$6
other 18% +$6
sports 3% −$23
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% +$2
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -33.1%
≤30d 17 -11.9% -20.3% 12% 0% -15.5%
≤90d 39 -6.9% -15.7% 23% 8% -10.5%
all 50 -5.5% -14.5% 24% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 6% -9.9%
10% -22.7% 6% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 6% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage601d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $64 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $145 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $76 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $72 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $10 +$8 +72%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 04 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $246 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,328 −$3 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $396 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 5h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 7h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 28h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 29h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $9 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 26d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.67 · official $30.67 (match) · 259 history records