Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdfab…d454 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$111 (+1%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%21W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$589per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$110
finance 5% +$7
other 3% +$3
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 21 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 21 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 21 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 0% -8.6%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,238) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses21 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$589
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $1,288 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $205 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $1,287 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $1,267 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $1,238 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $1,238 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $1,238 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $1,189 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $40 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 26? Jun 26 $470 +$5 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $346 +$3 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 26? Jun 26 $123 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $228 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $188 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $198 +$2 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 26? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,288 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,287 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $117 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $117 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $131 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $87 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,238 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,238 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records